People who bought houses in the middle of the pandemic are more likely to double their money over the next 10 years, compared with those buying now, as the market faces a longer downturn followed by a shallower upturn, experts say.
Shane Oliver, AMP Capital chief economist, said the sharp rises in house prices in the past two years and higher interest rates would make it difficult for values to double again within a decade, meaning investors were in for a slower period of growth than the seven-to-10-year-period over which many expect prices to double.
“If you’ve bought in the midst of the pandemic, or in 2017 after the market peaked, you’ve already seen a sharp rise in prices, so even if they come back by 10 per cent during this downturn, there’s a greater chance you’ll see a doubling in value within a 10-year horizon,” Dr Oliver said.
“But if you bought just recently, it’s going to be a bit harder because you’re starting from a much higher level with prices being up by 25 per cent compared to the pandemic low point. When you buy high, it takes longer to get a doubling in prices.”
New CoreLogic analysis shows that since the housing market bottomed out in 2019, the country’s biggest gainers came close to doubling their values, with median house prices in Waverley in Tasmania, Miami on the Gold Coast and North Ryde in Sydney rising 95.1 per cent, 93.8 per cent and 90.3 per cent respectively. Tim Lawless, CoreLogic’s research director said, however, it was rare for housing values to double over a single growth cycle.
Nerida Conisbee, Ray White chief economist, said current Sydney buyers in particular were unlikely to see a doubling in value over the next decade because of slower growth.
“We know that we are in for probably at least 12 months of fairly flat price growth, so it is perhaps less likely to double your money now, than if you bought in April 2020, so timing is a big factor,” she said.
Mr Lawless agreed: “During the previous growth cycle that ran between early 2012 and mid-2017, Sydney housing values increased by roughly 75 per cent, but it was not until August last year that Sydney housing values had recorded growth of at least 100 per cent. In other words, it took approximately 9.6 years across two growth cycles for Sydney housing values to double.
“Arguably, achieving a doubling of housing values in already expensive markets like Sydney will take a longer time than the average historically.”
Brisbane was a better bet for faster value appreciation, Ms Conisbee said.
“Brisbane buyers have a greater chance because I think Brisbane is undergoing a really big change at the moment and the pricing has been reset,” she said.
“If that continues, it’s probably more likely that values will double over a 10-year time period.”
That is less likely in Hobart.
The CoreLogic analysis finds that since their peak in 2017, house prices in six Tasmanian suburbs, namely Waverley, Primrose Sands, Stieglitz, St Leonards, Turners Beach and George Town have more than doubled their values.
Dr Oliver said the housing market faced greater risks in this cyclical downturn compared to the previous cycles.
“This time around there’s more uncertainty over it because we’re moving into a world of higher inflation, potentially higher interest rates on a longer-term basis, then that tailwind behind property prices may not be as strong as it once was.”
The record levels of household debt, tighter lending conditions and supply glut could also limit the upside, Mr Lawless said.
