The proportion of pandemic-era home buyers bailing out within two years and selling for a loss more than tripled to 9.7 per cent in the June quarter from a year earlier, as mortgage stress worsened, CoreLogic’s latest Pain and Gain report shows.
With dwelling values still 4.6 per cent lower than they were before interest rates started rising, homeowners reselling within two years incurred a $30,000 loss on average, according to the data provider’s report.
More than 8000 homes resold in the June quarter were held for only two years or less, up from 7400 in the previous quarter.
“We’re seeing more pain among people selling within two years, particularly if they’re selling in a market that has not fully recovered from the recent downturn,” said Eliza Owen, CoreLogic head of research.
“The transaction costs around property are so high that you’d really have to be quite motivated to sell within a short timeframe and to sell for a loss.”
The sales came at an uncertain time for Australia’s highly regional housing markets, as expectations of a pause in interest rate increases had pushed prices back up since March – reducing some of the losses suffered by forced sellers, Ms Owen said.
“I think the rebound in values came at a very fortunate time for a lot of people that were transitioning from low fixed rates to a high variable rate in the event that they needed to sell,” she said.
Even so, the mounting economic pressures were leaving many people with no choice, Ms Owen said.
“In the context of rapidly rising interest rates together with high cost-of-living pressures, the challenge of servicing a mortgage may be one such motivation,” she said.
Higher prices have already boosted profitability in home resales for the first time in a year. The portion of profit-making sales increased to 92.8 per cent in the June quarter, up from 92.4 per cent in the previous three months.
This could continue, Ms Owen said.
“Property prices are continuing to rise, albeit at a softer rate than what we were seeing through April and May across the major capital city markets, so we could potentially see higher profitability when we do the September-quarter analysis.”
Owner-occupiers comprised the bulk of the loss-making sales of homes held for up to two years at 72.1 per cent compared to 27.9 per cent by investors.
Houses made up 66 per cent of the short-term, loss-making resales, and 63.3 per cent were in the capital cities.
Northern Beaches, Campbelltown and Central Coast in Greater Sydney were among the areas posting a high portion of short-term loss-making sales. Vendors sustained up to a $60,000 loss on average.
Homeowners reselling within two years in Melbourne’s, Hume, Melton, Yarra Ranges and Casey incurred up to a $25,000 loss on average.
“Two years is a significant time period because we are two years on from the height of pandemic-related lockdowns, low interest rates, and have just passed the peak of transitions from low fixed rates to high variable rates,” Ms Owen said.
Short-term resales also spiked in regional areas where the portion of homes resold within two years climbed to 11.1 per cent, a sharp increase from the 7.2 per cent decade average.
“I think this speaks to the slight reversal in the popularity of regional Australia,” Ms Owen said.
Despite the increase in homes being sold within two years, most owners still hold their property for longer, according to a separate report by Domain.
Tenure, the number of years a property is owned before being resold, has gradually lengthened in many cities as people move less frequently, Domain’s new Tenure Report found.
House tenure extended to nine years, up from seven years in 2013, while units increased to eight years.
“This highlights the ongoing challenges of housing affordability and transactional costs – factors that discourage people from relocating to homes better suited to their needs – and subsequently reduce the efficient use of the housing stock and housing mobility,” said Nicola Powell, Domain’s head of research and economics.
“So I expect tenure will continue to lengthen until we start to see better policies in terms of taxation rules.”
